Zero air pollution and zero carbon from all energy at low cost and without blackouts in variable weather throughout the U.S. with 100% wind-water-solar and storage
by Mark Z. Jacobson, Anna-Katharina von Krauland, Stephen J. Coughlin, Frances C. Palmer, and Miles M. Smith
Volume 184, January 2022, Pages 430-442
This study analyzes 2050–2051 grid stability in the 50 U S. states and District of Columbia after their all-sector (electricity, transportation, buildings, industry) energy is transitioned to 100% clean, renewable Wind-Water-Solar (WWS) electricity and heat plus storage and demand response (thus to zero air pollution and zero carbon). Grid stability is analyzed in five regions; six isolated states (Texas, California, Florida, New York, Alaska, Hawaii); Texas interconnected with the Midwest, and the contiguous U.S. No blackouts occur, including during summer in California or winter in Texas. No batteries with over 4-h storage are needed. Concatenating 4-h batteries provides long-duration storage. Whereas transitioning more than doubles electricity use, it reduces total end-use energy demand by ∼57% versus business- as -usual (BAU), contributing to the 63 (43–79)% and 86 (77–90)% lower annual private and social (private + health + climate) energy costs, respectively, than BAU. Costs per unit energy in California, New York, and Texas are 11%, 21%, and 27% lower, respectively, and in Florida are 1.5% higher, when these states are interconnected regionally rather than islanded. Transitioning may create ∼4.7 million more permanent jobs than lost and requires only ∼0.29% and 0.55% of new U.S. land for footprint and spacing, respectively, less than the 1.3% occupied by the fossil industry today.
An article on CNBC (a business TV channel) says this:
Jacobson and his colleagues use three types of models for the calculations.
First, they use a spreadsheet model to project business-as-usual energy demand in each sector in each state to 2050 and then to convert the business-as-usual energy demand in 2050 to electricity provided by wind, water and solar.
Second, they use a weather model to predict the wind and solar fields in each state every 30 seconds. This weather-prediction model runs on a supercomputer and is written in Fortran computing language.
And the third component of his modeling matches the 2050 energy demand with the weather modeling of energy that can be supplied from wind, water and solar every 30 seconds. The third component is also written in Fortran, but this portion of the process can run on virtually any computer.